Later
this week, the Federal Reserve will release minutes of its March policy
meeting, possibly giving investors fresh insight into its plans for
interest rates and its "quantitative easing" program of bond purchases.
Last Friday's jobs report, which showed slow job growth in March and an
exodus of workers from the labor force, may make Fed officials
especially cautious about pulling back on easy-money policies.
On
Friday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release its
retail-sales report for March. Those figures may show whether consumers'
surprising resilience this year is likely to persist. Consumer spending
has been relatively robust in the first two months of the year, despite
a Jan. 1 increase in payroll taxes. But the disappointing March
employment report could signal mounting pressure on pocketbooks—and, in
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Continuing
uncertainty in Europe—including over a court ruling Friday that could
affect Portugal's international bailout program—adds another wild card.
Analysts
surveyed by data provider FactSet predicted first-quarter profits will
decline 0.6% from a year earlier among companies in the Standard &
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corporate earnings will fall from the year-earlier period for the second
time in three quarters.
Yet
many fund managers remain optimistic that stocks will continue their
record-setting run. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 11% for the
year following Friday's close at 14565.25. Bullish investors see signs
the U.S. economy will continue a slow expansion, creating jobs,Cast iron tubs boosting incomes and bolstering corporate profits.
"The
Fed's unconditional support of asset prices has made people more
confident," said David Ellison, a portfolio manager with Hennessy Funds,
which oversees around $3 billion. "But my bet is that the economy is
getting better."
U.S.
companies have allowed some optimism to creep into their forecasts, but
their tone remains cautious. Concerns about still-high unemployment,
budget debates in the U.S. and depressed prospects in Europe have been a
counterweight to an improving housing market and better prices on
petroleum products.
Top
executives at big consumer-products companies Procter & Gamble Co.
PG -0.39% and Clorox Co. CLX -0.54% said in the middle of the first
quarter that sales improved early in the year, a sign that shoppers were
holding up despite burdens such as the expiration of the payroll-tax
break. In mid-March, United Technologies Corp. UTX -0.56% Chief
Financial Officer Greg Hayes said improvements in the housing and
construction markets could help sales of the company's Carrier air
conditioners and Otis elevators.
Honeywell
International Inc. HON -1.04% Chief Executive David Cote struck a less
optimistic tone last month, saying the U.S. economy wasn't yet growing
fast enough to support increased hiring.
Recent
economic data have clouded the outlook. Friday's jobs report followed a
tepid manufacturing report earlier in the week, fanning fears that U.S.
growth is losing steam at a time when economies in Europe and Japan
already are struggling. In Portugal, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho
said Sunday he would look for fresh spending cuts to keep its bailout
program on track following a Constitutional Court decision striking down
some planned austerity measures.
U.S.
shares tumbled Friday as investors fled for the safety of government
bonds. The CBOE Market Volatility Index, the "fear gauge" known as the
VIX, rose to a one-month high midday Friday before easing at the close.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury note closed at 1.72%, its lowest yield since
December, and the Dow Jones industrials shed 40.86 points.
Some
investors contend last week's reversal was a blip. Economic data have
generally been improving this year and fears of a global economic shock
have largely dissipated, said Steve Rees, head of U.S. equity strategy
at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, which helps oversee $877 billion in client
assets.
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