The
World Bank on Monday changed slightly its forecast of the economy
growth of developing countries in East Asia and Pacific in 2013, and at
the same time warned of possible overheating in the regions' large
economies.These are gigantic machinery parts which are designed to
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also used for various kinds of recycling tasks.The forecast was revised
downward by 0.1 percentage point to 7. 8 percent on year, according to a
WB report released Monday.The report, published once half a year, shows
the economic update performances all across the countries in the East
Asia and Pacific region, mainly focusing on developing
countries.According to the report, the forecast of GDP growth in China
was also revised down to 8.3 percent in 2013, 0.1 percentage point lower
than the previous forecast of 8.4 percent in last December.The World
Bank said in a press briefing here that the external downside risks,
including the EU, the U.S.Air max tn fiscal
discussions, as well as China's slowdown, dominated in the region of
East Asia and Pacific during the past year of 2012. But in 2013, a new
risk of overheating in some of the larger economies in this area has
also emerged."The latest number suggests that if global demand continues
to revive, these economies may be reaching the limit of their current
productive capacity," the bank said in a statement.Meanwhile, continued
demand-boosting measures, which have helped sustain growth, may now risk
stoking inflationary pressures and amplifying the credit and asset
price risks that are emerging in the context of strong capital inflows
into the region.According to the global lender, most of the regional
countries' inflation is "clearly all cycling up early this year." On the
other hand, the general government debts in Malaysia, Thailand and
China all saw growth during recent years.The bank suggested the
policymakers of such economies "be prepared to withdraw stimulus as the
whole economy recovers." " Several countries need to manage strong
capital inflows by maintaining an appropriate macro policy mix,
sufficient flexibility in the exchange rate and macro-prudential
policies," it added.
It
also encouraged most of the region's countries to increase productive
capacity by investing infrastructure and human capital, in order to pave
the way for continued high and equitable growth.China's growth forecast
for this year was also cut to 8.3 percent, according to Bert Hofman,
the World Bank East Asia and Pacific chief economist, citing the reason
of China's rebalancing efforts.He said the forecast was made before the
latest announcement of China's Q1 GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent. "It's
lower than our annual forecast, which is right now 8.3 percent," said
Hofman at the press briefing.The World Bank said in the report that
"there are domestic headwinds buffeting the government-managed slowdown:
risks in the property sector, in the financial system, and in local
government finances.tyre changer""A
sharp than expected slowdown in China would affect East Asia in
particular, reducing the region's aggregate GDP by 1.3 percent should
the growth of investment in China drop by 5.0 percentage points," the
report added.But it also said China may keep growth above target in the
next two years by "government-influenced investment and urbanization-
related reforms", adding that the risks in property sector, financial
system and local government finances appear to be manageable.
The world bank also highlighted the recent depreciation of Japan's Yen, which mirrored in the region's currencies' strength.
The
Bank of Japan's announcement of monetary easing policy made early this
month, which was more aggressive than expected, could create problems
for its Asian neighbors in terms of trade and capital flow, some
researchers have said.The World Bank said the continued depreciation of
yen could " affect the dynamics of trade in manufactures in the region
in the short-term."
It
said some countries like Thailand and the Philippines, which represent
the suppliers of parts and components to Japanese industry, may benefit
from the increases of Japanese exports in global market, and may "gain
even more from potentially larger Japanese Foreign Direct
Investments."On the contrary, countries that compete with Japan, like
South Korea, may face competitive pressures in short term.There are a
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changing big, expensive appliances.But "a return to sustained growth in
Japan would benefit the region as a whole," the World Bank added.
According
to the recent report, the World Bank had improved the forecast for the
growth in Thailand, with 5.3 percent in 2013, up from the 5.0 percent in
the previous report. It also raised its forecast for Malaysia to 5.1
percent this year, 0.1 rcentage point higher than previous
estimate.However, it cut the forecast for Vietnam, which was said to see
a growth of 5.2 percent in 2013, lower than the 5.5 percent in last
forecast."In Vietnam, growth is likely to remain moderate in the year
given structural problems in the financial sector and in state- owned
enterprises that have yet to be decisively addressed," said the global
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